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March 3, 2011

Tablet Sales in US to Double in 2011-2012

 Forrester published its revised US consumer tablet forecast, yesterday updating its previous forecast from June 2010. When Apple's iPad first debuted, this device was a distrupter and a game changer  and that was one reason Forrester  were too conservative with  their forecast

However new inputs and new Tablet launches  durng 2010 has led  Forrester to revise the  US consumer tablet forecast for 2010 upward to 10.3 million units, and it projects its sales to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units. Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012.

One major assumption that changed in our model is the replacement rate, which we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs. Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be "lifestyle devices" at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC. In other words, we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year -- many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely Facetime-compatible) model.

As for Android tablets, Research In Motion's BlackBerry PlayBook, Microsoft's Windows-based tablets, and tablets that run on HP's and Nokia's platforms, they'll take a backseat to Apple, but in a market this big, there's room for more than one player. By 2015, 82 million US consumers -- one-third of US online consumers -- will be using a tablet, and not all of them will be iPads. ( Forrester Research )