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March 24, 2011

The Truth About Groupon's February Revenue


Groupon's U.S. sales collapsed in February according to data gathered by a TechCrunch source.

The source ran a program that collected data off Groupon's site to tabulate sales. The data might not be dollar for dollar accurate, but it could easily be accurate from a direction perspective.

The chart above shows a pretty good estimate of Groupon’s monthly U.S. revenues based on an analysis of every Groupon deal on its site over the last year (each deal page shows how many Groupons were sold and the price). Some key takeaways: From January, 2010 to January 2011, Groupon’s U.S. monthly revenues grew eightfold from $11 million to $89 million. But February saw a huge 30 percent drop-off to $62 million. Was that a backlash because of the Super Bowl ads or simply a breather after three months of crazy holiday deals?

When you add up all of the monthly figures for 2010, it comes to an estimate of $460 million for Groupon’s annual U.S. revenue. That is 60 percent of Groupon’s rumored worldwide 2010 revenue of $760 million reported by the WSJ. And it also gels with this report on the U.S. group buying industry, which estimated total 2010 U.S. group buying revenues at $1.1 billion, with Groupon accounting for less than half. But the numbers being thrown out for Groupon’s 2011 revenues are in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. That means that either these estimates are low (a possibility), or that the bulk of Groupon’s growth is overseas.