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March 7, 2012

Tablet Sales To Exceed PC Sales by 2013

When would  Tablets start showing higher sales than PC ? According to Horace Dediu of  Symco that day  when the tablet market (by units) will exceed that of traditional PCs will come sometime in the fall of 2013.

 However in order to achieve this by 2012,  depends on other factors as well, some of the underlying assumptions  are: Mac growth continues at 25% as it has on average for a few years Windows grows slightly in 2012 with the introduction of Windows 8 late in the year. 

Horace anticipates that Windows 8, including tablet versions, would be  mostly upgrades with slow enterprise take-up within this time frame. 

The tablet versions of Windows begin shipping in Q4 2012 with 7% of total Windows shipped. The ratio reaches 20% by end of 2013.

 iPad growth will flatten for ’12 and ’13 at 100%, similar to iPhone’s historic performance. Android tablet growth will be significant in the current year and follow iPad growth pattern though settling at 80% during ’13. Amazon growth will be approximately 80%.