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Showing posts with label Forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecasting. Show all posts

September 18, 2015

October 4, 2014

Whats Driving Microsoft Productivity Software Market


MICROSOFT PRODUCTIVITY SOFTWARE MARKET SHARE :The value of a company is the sum of the values of its divisions, plus cash, minus debt.Microsoft has traditionally been a leader in the productivity software market, thanks to its ubiquitous Office suite. Its market share was 94.4% in 2008, but declined marginally to 93.6% in 2012.

GLOBAL PRODUCTIVITY SOFTWARE MARKET :Microsoft faces still competition from from hosted suites, especially Google Docs The software as a service model has the potential to disrupt the productivity software market over the long run, given the prospect of enhanced cost savings for the enterprises.Microsoft is moving into cloud-based software.There are very few success stories with this model.t $ 6 user/month, Office 365 enjoys price leadership. Although, Google Apps, at $5 user/month, is an cheaper alternative but it lacks many features of Office 365 

HISTORICAL AND FORECAST

The global productivity software market was worth an estimated $19.6 billion in 2008. It declined marginally in 2009, but has since expanded to around $24 billion in 2012. This is expected to show a steady growth in the coming years

Key drivers of office productivity market.

 This is expected to increases as the world's working age population will increase over the forecast period?Led by the increasing growth of the BRIC nations along with booming economies of India, China, Southeast Asia and Latin America will see rapid increase in adoption of productivity software market

Operating Marging.Microsoft Office Operating Margin has traditionally been around 64%. It was around 66.2% in 2012.according to Tefris, this is set to decline  at a moderate level

March 29, 2011

Morgan Stanely Forecast For 2011






















In a new note, Morgan Stanley's European team is getting defensive, and telling clients to go underweight industrial stocks and overweight the traditionally defensive telecom sector.

1) History suggests that defensive outperform post peaks in lead indicators and at the start of a new interest rate cycle.

2) Defensive sectors are very unpopular - European investors are now more underweight defensive than financials.

3) Over the last 40 years the only prior occasion when defensives had underperformed as much on a two-year rolling basis was in the 2000 TMT bubble.

4) Post poor performance, defensive valuations look increasingly attractive.

As for getting negative on industrials:

To fund our more positive view on defensive, we are going underweight Industrials as we believe the sector is one of the most vulnerable to an inflection point in the economic growth story and is relatively more exposed to building margin pressures.

This chart shows nicely what industries do best after the ISM peaks (signaling the end of the first stage of the recovery):

source : Businessinsider